I used to keep records of my poker play but drifted off somewhat when I began playing the online casinos again. I even stopped requesting hand histories for a few months, despite continuing to play daily.

Last year I'd mentioned that PokerCharts showed me as a break-even player in limit ring because of costly multis eating profits. I lost my PokerTracker database shortly after (coincidence?) and started from scratch.

Now that I'll be needing to pull money out of bankroll for living expenses, it's time to get serious and whip the roll into shape.

My goal for this month is to parse an hourly rate based on approximately 100 Party SnGs per week at an average 18 minutes each (factoring in multi-tabling and early noncash exits). It will be primarily 50+5 with sprinklings of 30+3 and 100+9 depending if I'm doing well or poorly. If well, a shot at 100+9. If poorly, some 30+3 to get back on my feet. These are for variety and to confuse the poker gods by mixing up streaks of a possible 10+ in a row noncashes (or the more preferable 10+ in a row cashes); the final data will focus on my rate for 50+5.

Four hundred SnGs is still statistically too small to extrapolate performance in future months (I'd feel more comfortable with at least a thousand), but it's enough trials to give me a general gauge of what I might expect. If I find at the end of this case study month that I'm at a loss, I'll do another month at just 30+3 to reaffirm or hang up the poker hat and take up needlepoint. Based on my 30+3 ROI of 16 percent (yep, that's low though still profitable), I'm shooting for my 50+5 ROI to be right at that level despite the fact that in actuality it should be less because the higher you go, the better the players and the higher the variance. But I have high expectations. Or equal expectations.

At 16 percent, that would be (50+5)*16% = $8.80 * 400 tourneys = $3520 for the month at 120 hours, or 30 hours per week, or $29/hour. This would be satisfactory to me. Anything significantly less, and I'll reconsider limit ring.

Try as I might, I will also restrain to cold turkey all casino play this month in an effort not to be tempted into more tilt-induced forays. SnGs do not tilt me as much as other games, because I can hop right into the next one and quickly forget the guy who sucked out because I won't see him again.

SnGs are still relatively new to the poker scene, and I believe they're the hidden cash cow of online poker. Whenever my bankroll has taken a hit, I've gone back to the security blanket of SnGs to rebuild. I would be showing a profit if not for (30+3)*16% = $5.28 * 400 tourneys = $2112 - 1500 slots - 500 blackjack = $112 every month.

But we'll see.

Some seven months ago I had begun something similar with stars in my eyes at $60/hour (way, way too high for 30+3, which at 16 percent and 18 minutes each SnG comes to $17.60/hour). I dropped the quest soon after some beats that ran me into the red. This time, I'm a bit better bankrolled to handle the streaks (20+ buy-ins at 50+5 vs. 6 buy-ins at 30+3) and even if I take some early hits I'll plow on... let's just hope against 20 losses in a row, or out comes the needle and thread and cross-stitch patterns.

I think I'm more profitable in SnGs than any other type of game, but I need to stare at the data to convince myself, because it's still difficult for me to reconcile a buy-in that I'll never see again unless hitting 3rd place or better. Playing 400 SnGs will up my confidence interval with the stats to stand behind it.

According to PokerTracker, my 5/10 6max rate over 3-4 tables is 2.9BB/100 hands. Assuming 60 hands per hour * 3 tables, my actual hourly for 5/10 short is 5.22BB, or $52.20/hour. (The last ring I played was 10/20 6max over 2 tables at 1.64BB/100, or $39.36/hour.)

So if 5/10 6max is so much more profitable, why am I not playing that solely? I don't believe this rate is sustainable with a limited bankroll. But the main reason: freakin' variance. Which is what brought me down to my small roll to begin with (okay, slots and blackjack did me in, but we're discounting them for the moment).

Plus ring games simply aren't as much fun and seem more the grind. Even while playing ring I always had an SnG or two in the background.

I'm regrouping in the SnGs hoping to rebuild to take more shots at 10/20; however, after this month is over, with any luck I may find myself with a good argument to never return to limit and instead pursue the 100+9 and 200+15 SnGs.

One piece of data is for certain: after 400 SnGs at the 50+5 level, I'll have paid $2000 just in fees to Party. That's $24K per year. Mind-boggling, ain't it? Once I embark on this for good, I will seek out a 20-25% rakeback, which at $400-$500 per month would look very good indeed and add $3 to $4 per hour to my rate.

I'm welcoming a relatively calm SnG-only month. There will still be beats, but they won't cost as much. I'll update at the end of the month and give the cold hard stats that don't lie no matter how much I try to make them.



lunch:
Krispy Kreme donut holes (the boxed version, not fresh)
mint chocolates
Cup o' Noodles (beef flavor)
Texas cornbread with grape jelly (really needed the jelly)
Nestle's Crunch
Peanut M&Ms
Skittles
Krackle
watermelon

3 Diet Cokes
1 Diet Coke with Lime
Orange Tornado

dinner:
fried calamari
chicken panang
2 steamed mussels