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Monday, October 18, 2004

Grubby's Hand of the Week #22

I'm running bad. Way bad. 100BB in 10/20 bad. Kick-the-cat-during-a-botched-vasectomy-getting-hit-by-an-uninsured-truck-carrying-asbestos-and-killer-maggots bad. I know this will correct itself eventually, but it's difficult to keep up the spirits when getting beats, missing draws, folding winners to heavy action (KK and two raises to me with an Ace on the flop... turned out the aggressor had 99 and took it), and losing things like KK vs. AA (rag flop, K on turn for me, A on river for him... and every street capped by the unsuspecting grub UTG... he can't possibly have AA, methought, as I'm sure he also didn't put me on KK).

Let's start with a good hand. 10/20 6max. I have AA and raise preflop. One caller. Flop is rags. Turn is a rag. River is an Ace. I bet the whole way, he check-calls the whole way with A4o. I don't begrudge him playing A4o (we're shorthanded), nor calling a raise with it. But going past the flop and turn? It's this type of caller that kills many a QQ and KK hand that I had previously, as he draws for that Ace. It's why I pump the flop and turn, making them pay for the draw... which backfires into making the pot more attractive to continue calling.

And now the bad.

Ring and tourneys alike, seemingly every strong hand this weekend also hit someone else -- usually with a flopped set. I'm sometimes able to fold if reraised here; only problem is, I bet big on the flop which commits me to see it through. One of my leaks is paying people off, but perhaps that's just inevitable for the times they don't hit their set of 2s when I raise 8x with AA.

Worse was the dreaded head-shaking one-card flush or straight made on the river. One hand flopped me a set and the river brought a 4flush... the winner had a 3 of that suit (a Jack was his other card, and no Jacks on the board). Lord knows why he even called a raise (he was in the blind) and chased a Jack and one-card flush, but such is online poker. I even check-raised the flop and he called to the end. At least he had the decency not to raise the river.

In ring games you can make notes and use that information for future plays, hoping they stick around enough for you to get your money back before they give it away to other people.

With SnGs, once you're out, you're out. At a few tables, people apologized for taking me out with lesser hands (that they saw fit to call my all-in with anyway). One hand I had AA and reraised someone all-in preflop. He typed, "I have AQ," and then called, hit two Queens, and said, "sry." We weren't shorthanded at this point. The worst is when people tell him "nh" or say "wow." Worse still is when he's a sore winner and types "lol" or "hahahaha." Fortunately I'm already out of the SnG that prevents me from tilting.

Each time I've withheld saying anything back in chat. I don't curse, I don't lash out, I don't table coach. I don't even say "nh." I just make a note and keep playing.

My current ROI for SnGs is still 1 percent. Pathetic.

Barring slots & bj, I'd been running good the first couple weeks thanks to that TGC multi and playing ring (why can't 7.49BB/100 hands be sustainable?!), so I knew this was coming. I didn't expect it to happen to the SnGs, but the ring games couldn't possibly stay at that high BB/100 rate. This happened with SnGs last month, where I began the first 100 at a high 56 percent ROI before ending the month with an average 29 percent.

Perhaps I should only play at the beginnings of the month.

I need to steel myself during this downturn and just keep putting in the hours; one or two or three losing sessions don't affect me, but a string of them over the course of a weekend rattles the ol' bones. And it may not be over yet.

ยง

No winner for Hand of the Week #21 so we add another $5 to the prize pool.

I dropped a hint within the HoW ("...would probably have stayed straight to the end"). Oh how tricky we can be when we amuse just ourselves.

I had 3 6.

To recap:

I'm in MP, I call (questionable, but I'll sometimes play these shorthanded when the table's been passive), and the flop is 7 5 8.

SB bets, I call, button calls.

Turn is K.

SB bets, I raise (on the straight and flush draw, representing a King, and to knock out the Button who may have overcards), Button folds, SB calls.

River is no help to me at all -- J.

SB checks, I bet (nothing I can do but maintain my bluff), and SB folds!

Hdouble was right on the mark with his analysis:
Ok, I'm thinking you had a draw on the flop, and the turn helped your hand... aggressive Grubby would have raised the flop if he had a pair AND a flush draw, rather than waiting for the turn. A set or 2 pair is possible, but just doesn't feel right.

My spidey sense is telling me that someone got hit with THE HAMMER... but not exactly. 72h is my guess.


He seems to know best how I play. Perhaps it's time for another heads-up match, HD?

I put SB on medium or bottom pair -- I don't know anyone on Party who will drop top pair no matter what the kicker, and no matter getting check-raised.

My turn-raise was the only way I could signal to him I had a hand. People rarely check-raise the turn on anything but a made hand. If I represented something strong, I could possibly have gotten him to laydown a smaller pair, which is what he did. Then again, he could also have been on a draw.

Still, I doubt my 6 high would've won the pot on showdown.



Grubby's Hand of the Week #22
for Monday, October 18, 2004

Prize: $25


I'll be in Vegas next Monday, so this one will have to tide you over for two weeks. The first person to correctly guess my hand before the Monday after next wins. Suits may or may not matter. One guess per person, please. Winner will be declared here that Monday. If there's no winner, $5 will be added to the prize pool.

This week's HoW is sponsored by Party. We still like you, Party, even if you give us action flops, we get sucked out on the river, and we get stuck holding crappy AA cards that come in third at showdown. If you'd like to keep these hand-reading quizzes going, please consider signing up using this link. You'll get a 20 percent bonus up to $100 on your first deposit, plus if you're the winner, the prize is tripled for you.

Leave your guess in the comments section below. You can be Anonymous without registering through Blogger, but do include your name so I know whose guess is whose.

If you don't include contact info and you're the winner, email me after the quiz is over.

Good luck and good skills,




Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: grubby is BB with T J
UTG raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, grubby calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) T 2 8 (3 players)
grubby checks, UTG bets, CO calls, grubby raises, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 7 (3 players)
grubby bets, UTG folds, CO calls.

River: (8.20 BB) A (2 players)
grubby bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB
Main Pot: 10.20 BB, between grubby and CO.


What did CO have? Hint: he had one .

Also please write "X-Box" or "PlayStation" (or "either" if you don't have a preference). A survey I'm doing, but completely unrelated to HoW. Details soon...

36 Comments:

Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


As2d if suits matter, A2o if not.

Too obvious? Ah well. At least I'm first to guess.

-Walstib


7:24 PM 
Commented by Blogger DCP:


I think he cought middle pair on the flop, I doubt he called a bet and a raise with a pair of 2's with A kicker. So im going to say he had Ace 8 of spades,


8:44 PM 
Commented by Blogger hdouble:


Alright, I just missed last week with the hammer, but this week I have to guess the anonymous cutoff's hand. If at first you don't succeed... CO HELD THE HAMMER! The 7 of spades of course. I feel strongly about this.


10:03 PM 
Commented by Blogger Sean:


Going with the "hint in the post" theme, I'll guess AA. Not that any of my other guesses have been any better.

And of course PS2. Anything made by Microsoft is inherently evil.


11:22 PM 
Commented by Blogger raywzup:


I say CO has A-Spade, 10-Diamond and wins with 2-pair. When UTG raised preflop, CO calls because he puts UTG with possible A-K. When flop came, he has top pair but was worry about Big Blind hitting the set, possible pocket ducks making his trips when he check-raised. After UTG folded after the turn, it was head to head, it's possible Big Blind was on a Spade Flush draw and trying to take the pot right there, he calls. River helped CO making two-pairs, for sure he's gonna see it all the way even if there's a slight chance he thinks that Big Blind had the set, the pot odds are probably what makes him call the bet.


6:23 AM 
Commented by Blogger BadBlood:


I'm going with 6,9. The guy caught his straight on the turn, but was scared you had 9,J so he didn't raise it.

Maybe?


8:37 AM 
Commented by Blogger Roberto Roundtree Rogelio:


9s9d

blah... neither.


9:34 AM 
Commented by Blogger StB:


9s 7h


9:51 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


9 of spades and 10...straight draw and top pair

Playstation

-AgentLace


10:07 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


88 one spade
Jarrod


10:11 AM 
Commented by Blogger NemoD:


A5s.

xbox. yeah microsoft is evil, but sometimes i like being bad.

stay strong in face of adversity. we should set up a bad beat hotline for you specifically so you don't go back to the whores that are blackjack and slots.


3:18 PM 
Commented by Blogger ToddCommish:


JT, with the jack of spades for a split pot.


5:20 PM 
Commented by Blogger F-Train:


never getting to these things first means I have to guess something not already guessed, but I'll go with Ac Js, giving him two overs on the flop (but one of which would give you two pair) with some backdoor draws, and a gutshot with an over on the turn.


10:26 PM 
Commented by Blogger Drizztdj:


As9o

I prefer the playstation :)


9:03 AM 
Commented by Blogger SirFWALGMan:


No comments. I love it. I try to bite my tongue most of the time, but some days I just cannot help myself. Usually when the 4th J2o hits his J2 on the river to beat my AA capped pre-flop of course. Even if I realize I will eventally get my money back I still cannot shutup! Your a much better person than me!


10:47 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


(from Carter)

Playstation

CO had As3h. He flopped A-high (three to the nut flush) and just called all the way, destined to administer yet another bad beat.


4:40 PM 
Commented by Blogger BadBlood:


Ok, I'll change my guess to 8,9 - middle pair and backdoor straight draw.

GameCube!!!


9:01 AM 
Commented by Blogger Sean:


I'm changing my guess to Ks8s


10:35 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


89 both Spades.

Ever thought that you win more at the start of the month because fish spend their spare cash when they get their paycheck and don't have enough to play later in the month, hence leaving the 'pros' and better players to battle it out towards the end? Just a thought.

Playstation

Jaymz


10:49 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Let's change my answer to AA, one being the ace of spades.

-AgentLace


11:43 AM 
Commented by Blogger Lifesagrind:


Js9c

XBOX is the only real gaming system


1:43 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Q-J

Had to call you on the river, because you could have had a worse queen hi! Harrr!


4:32 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


The above guess (Q-J) was me, as I forgot to include my name. XBox, by the way.

-Pengy


7:12 AM 
Commented by Blogger grubby:


No winner. Better luck next time!

CO had 9d 4s. This is the reason to value bet the river. Who knows why he thought 9 high would be good.


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