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Monday, September 20, 2004

Grubby's Hand of the Week #18

That sure was a tough one for last week's Hand of the Week #17. ToddCommish actually came close with his Hammer guess, but I'm waiting for the one week no one guesses 27o before sneaking it in.

Nope, the oddball Button had a truly oddball hand. Compared with a lot of showdowns at Party, even this one was surprising. And just when you think you've seen it all.

Button had...

Are you ready?

He had...

Are you sitting down?

Still in level 1, the Button raised preflop and called a 3bet (including one all-in) with...

2 5.

Yep, you read that right.

Go back and check Hand of the Week #17 and see how truly insane this call was. He raised from the Button trying to steal. When BB reraised and UTG reraised all-in, I suppose he was looking at a big gamblin' pot where any two cards could win.

And he did.

With a pair of 2s.

And it's a 50+5 SnG.

Jeesh, to think I folded the winner. Maybe I should start making calls like that. Goodness knows my big pockets were continually pummelled by small pockets that hit their sets all last week. Would he have called if his 2-5 was unsuited? It boggles the mind.

I dug up the stats on him in PokerTracker and he busted out three hands later. No big surprise. He was raised T175, and he went over the top with... A4o. The raiser called him with 22 and won. How's that for just desserts?

Okay, that week's behind us. Let's move on to better play... ah c'mon, this is Party, who'm I foolin'?

Extra $5 in the HoW kitty, and compared with the above hand, this is a piece o' fishcake. It won't be the first thing you think of, so discard that one. The second and third obvious guesses will also be wrong, but in the general ballpark. If you pick what you would've chosen as fifth or sixth -- probably seventh down the list -- I'd say that's a better guess and I would go with that. Make sense? (And no, that isn't some veiled code for Sklansky rankings... or is it?)

I'm so sure that someone will win this week that I'm guaranteeing a winner because if there's no correct answer, I'll pick randomly out of all the guesses. But don't let me down and post some random hand! Where's the fun in that?


Grubby's Hand of the Week #18
for Monday, September 20, 2004

Prize: $35


The first person to correctly guess my opponent's hand before next Monday wins. Suits may or may not matter. One guess per person, please. Winner will be declared here that Monday. If there's no winner, I'll pick one randomly out of all the guesses and award him/her $35. Next week will reset to $20.

This week's HoW is sponsored by Party, that maker of fine aquariums where you don't have to be a good player, just a bit better than the worst. A-yuh, this is a moot ad since if you play online poker, you already play Party. But on the offchance you haven't signed up yet and would like to support more of these quizzes, consider signing up using this link. You'll join my elite group of signups (currently at 1), plus if you're the winner, the prize is doubled for you.

Leave your guess in the comments section below. You can be Anonymous without registering through Blogger, but do include your name so I know whose guess is whose.

If you don't include contact info and you're the winner, email me after the quiz is over.

Good luck and good skills,




Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

grubby (t1000)
SB (t1000)
BB (t1000)
UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t1000)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t1000)

Preflop: grubby is Button with A T
3 folds, MP1 raises to t30, 3 folds, grubby calls t30, 1 fold, BB calls t15.

Flop: (t100) J 9 7 (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets t80, grubby raises to t160, BB folds, MP1 calls t80.

Turn: (t420) 3 (2 players)
MP1 bets t150, grubby raises to t300, MP1 raises to t450, grubby raises to t600, MP1 raises to t750, grubby raises to t810 (All-In), MP1 calls t60 (All-In).

River: (t2040) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t2040
Main Pot: t2040 (t2040), between grubby and MP1.


My 50+5 SnG September madness continues. I'm in the home stretch at exactly 100 more to go in 10 days. I've been ahead of pace (at least in quantity), so I expect to complete all 400 by next HoW. My ROI is all over the place, beginning at the highest I've ever seen (and too much to hope for, sadly) and is currently at the lowest (double sadly). A hunnert more SnGs and this stat had better not dip lower, or Poker Grub will become Slots Grub and I'll be all the more happier living the rivered-free life of slots. But I'll save that discussion for month's end.

I'll try to play better, but after the hand above, you see what people call and get lucky with. This is why I pump preflop to make it too expensive for them to even try to flop the chance to draw. Mostly I hope I'm not involved in that hand when it comes down (because there's always one hand like this in every SnG).

Yeah yeah, odds will eventually work in your favor when you're a 65 percent better-than-a-coinflip favorite going in. But imagine several at the table gunning for their draws and you're left holding top pair/top kicker. Sometimes AKs just isn't worth it.

Must.
Learn.
To.

Fold.

This hand is from another $50+5 SnG. Nice to flop the nut flush on the very first hand and get bet into every step of the way. (Alas, I came in 6th in this tourney... I did not do his chips justice.)

I easily call a 2x raise here at the Button. 2x BB is for wimps. It means nothing and you might as well call. It's the rare Party player who does the minimum raise hoping for a reraise. And if he's raising this little with a big pocket pair, I'm just itching to crack 'em. With this hand and this early where the BB isn't too high, I'd probably call as high as 5x (too loose territory, that's me). Having A T on the Button is a much different story than from early position.

I admit I had to check under the bed for monsters, but no made straight flush was in sight, thanks to my bad 10 kicker.

What could MP1 have had?

Remember the hint I said earlier, but here's another one: his hand contained neither a 2 nor a 5.

33 Comments:

Commented by Blogger StudioGlyphic:


Pocket eights, one of them the 8c.


3:33 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Kc9h
-Jason


7:08 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


8-6

-Pengy


7:27 AM 
Commented by Blogger Sean:


99


8:11 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


K/Q clubs

jdrew515


9:53 AM 
Commented by Blogger Mike:


Q8c


9:57 AM 
Commented by Blogger SirFWALGMan:


I say 6-8 of clubs hoping for your 10 to make the sf! Or the 5.


9:58 AM 
Commented by Blogger JW:


K,To with the Kc.

That's my guess and I'm stickin' to it!


10:31 AM 
Commented by Blogger Roberto Roundtree Rogelio:


Kc, Ks -- paid the price for letting you in cheap with Cowboys on the first hand, then couldn't get away since he had a club.


10:48 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Q of Clubs and J of something else
-AgentLace


11:13 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


AJo
-Mark


11:50 AM 
Commented by Blogger StB:


My guess is 3 6, not even a single club.


11:53 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Gotta be 33


11:56 AM 
Commented by Blogger Maudie:


I'm going to take a wild stab at an improbable T-8 sooted - improbable because I can't imagine that hand being played UTG and for a raise pre-flop....


1:09 PM 
Commented by Blogger ToddCommish:


Crabs, 33, probably, though not necessarily one of which is a club.

Gotta be a pair because of the preflop raise (and it's posted here, which means that AJ or KJ is NOT the answer). After the flop, he's hoping for a flush. All the raising after the turn makes me think he thinks he made his hand, so gotta be 33. Unless I'm wrong....


1:56 PM 
Commented by Blogger Drizztdj:


Gotta be J3 sOOOOted. :D


2:13 PM 
Commented by Blogger grubby:


from Carter:

Since I can't access blogger from work to post a comment:

He had T of clubs, J non-club. So he hit top-pair, with a straight flush draw. The cards are connected, and thus playable (on Party) for a pre-flop raise.


update from Carter:

Java code is clogging my brain. You held the Tc. Here's another stab:

Set of J's. Top set, and he think your "weak" (for Party Poker) pre/post flop play says you're 4-to-a-flush. The raising and re-raising on the garbage turn are attempts to buy the pot. I'm sure that's totally wrong, but if I could predict Party Poker play, I'd be a much richer man.


2:28 PM 
Commented by Blogger BadBlood:


I'm gonna go with 8,8 one of which is a club.


3:40 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


I'm goin with 77.

alan@geekandproud.net


4:24 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


He has J-6.

-droletto


5:18 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Crap... I meant J-3.

-droletto


5:19 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


A-A

Sportsphone


6:06 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


7-3 suited. Who wouldn't raise with the 2-flush preflop?

-bartley


6:13 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


i'm going with JJ and the guy stuck to the high trips because he's an idiot.


8:02 PM 
Commented by Blogger NemoD:


T7o, also known as the negreanu.


you gotta stay away from the slots. it seems like every month we read about you blowing your stack at the online casinos, and your fans don't want to see a sad grubby. (and yes, i realize how hypocritical i'm being since i'm the king of tilt).


8:44 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


56c... - hypnotik117


6:03 AM 
Commented by Blogger Lifesagrind:


5 8
lifesagrind


10:23 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


J7 and didn't make the flush


11:21 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


Whoops that last comment (j7 no flush) was by Ry4an


11:23 AM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


I always get in here to late. So, I'll go with 9,9. Habsfanca11


2:25 PM 
Commented by Anonymous Anonymous:


QQ , he had ladies. - Ari


8:54 PM 
Commented by Blogger John-Paul:


K3, both clubs, or just the king of clubs.


5:56 PM 
Commented by Blogger grubby:


Amazingly, AgentLace wins for the second time in a row! He guessed QJo (though neither was a club). Good going, A.L.!


1:16 AM 

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