Rabbit, rabbit!
This rabbit was lucky for September, then came an awful rabbit-less October, and now we start over with a new month, and this time I ain't forgettin' the hare, 'cause I need all the luck I can muster down the bunny trail.

I won't go into the incredible beats I've been getting in 10/20 6max this past week. Since returning from Vegas, I've been getting crushed six ways to Sunday in this game and am going through extreme doubts whether I'm cut out for this.

Perhaps it's just 10/20 (or any limit ring, for that matter), but my river in Egypt says I'm not tilting and just experiencing short-term bad luck. 'Course, my gnarled 250BB downturn would say tilt TiLt tIlT just by playing 10/20 in the first place.

In terms of play, 10/20 is infinitely easier than 5/10. Bluffs abound and I'm often folding winners. You do, however, need a hefty bankroll to hang on to the wild swings. And there's my leak. While my ego thinks I can beat these people, my bankroll quickly puts a halt to that so that I'm now back to SnGs for this month and no more 10/20 for awhile, rabbit willing.

Well, okay, I said I wouldn't, but I'll give you just one typical hand from this game (warning: bad beat ahead):


Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: grubby is BB with Q 8
2 folds, Button raises, SB calls, grubby calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 3 Q 8 (3 players)
SB checks, grubby checks, Button bets, SB calls, grubby raises, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 5 (2 players)
SB checks, grubby bets, SB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 5 (2 players)
SB bets, grubby raises, SB 3-bets, grubby calls $9.75 (All-In).

Final Pot: 12.98 BB
Main Pot: 12.47 BB, between SB and grubby. Pot won by SB (12.47 BB).
Pot 2: 0.51 BB, returned to SB.

SB has 4 5 (three of a kind, fives).
grubby has Q 8 (two pair, queens and eights).
Outcome: SB wins 12.98 BB.


Please overlook my calling a raise preflop. If I were anywhere but BB, I would have mucked. If this were full ring, it would also be an easy muck. Shorthanded, yeah, I'm calling.

The river raise was probably a bad idea, but unlike 5/10, players tend to bet out on scare cards like an overcard or 3flush card. Because of this, you want to value raise the suspected bluff. They will sometimes take their bluffs to the reraise level (and will fold to a 3bet or cap), you just have to pick your battles.

I would never have put him on a 5. What could he have seen on that flop worthy of calling a check-raise? How could he have possibly called past the turn? But as you saw from Hand of the Week #22 where my opponent called me down with 9 high, they occasionally don't hit as well.

You try these fancy moves to get people to fold and to show strength, and you still get called down. Don't let that influence your not betting the river.

By the way, if you feel like doing some stalking, this fish is named wwwlpwages. Perfect for adding to buddy lists and following him around to see how lucky one person can be. He was clearly lucky enough to stick around through two rebuys from me, and proceeded to take me again to the felt before I left the table holding my bleeding ass and saying no mas.

§

No winner for Hand of the Week #22, and another $5 is added to the pool. CO had 9 5 and called down with nothing but his 9 high. If I just had top pair, top kicker, I would sorely be tempted to check the river here (in which case he would certainly have bet out as a bluff, and I would call).

Thanks to those who voted for Xbox vs. PlayStation 2. I was trying to decide on a prize for the grublog tourney and because the decision was as close as Bush/Kerry will likely be (with a Nader/GameCube thrown in for equal time), I'm giving the Grublog winner a choice of gaming systems. Don't forget to vote tomorrow!

Grubby's Hand of the Week #23
for Monday, November 1, 2004

Prize: $30

The first person to correctly guess my hand before next Monday wins. Suits may or may not matter. But it probably matters in this instance (big hint!). One guess per person, please. Winner will be declared here that Monday. If there's no winner, $5 will be added to the prize pool.

This week's HoW is sponsored by Party because by gum, my three signups are getting lonely. If you'd like to keep these hand-reading quizzes going, please consider signing up using this link. You'll get a 20 percent bonus up to $100 on your first deposit, plus if you're the winner, the prize is tripled for you. And, the next person to sign up through my link will get a genuine PartyPoker baseball cap or Shana Hiatt calendar (your choice).

Leave your guess in the comments section below. You can be Anonymous without registering through Blogger, but do include your name so I know whose guess is whose.

If you don't include contact info and you're the winner, email me after the quiz is over.

Good luck and good skills,

---

Party Poker Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind t15 (10 handed) converter

grubby (t970)
UTG (t1105)
UTG+1 (t970)
UTG+2 (t820)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t925)
MP3 (t940)
CO (t925)
Button (t975)
SB (t1370)

Preflop: grubby is BB with ???
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, SB 3-bets, grubby calls, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, CO caps, Button calls, SB calls, grubby calls.

Flop: (18 SB, t270) 5 K 3 (4 players)
SB bets, grubby raises, CO calls, Button folds, SB 3-bets, grubby caps, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (15 BB, t450) 2 (3 players)
SB bets, grubby raises, CO calls, SB 3-bets, grubby calls, CO calls.

River: (24 BB, t720) 5 (3 players)
SB bets, grubby raises, CO calls, SB 3-bets, grubby caps, CO calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 36 BB (t1080)
Main Pot: 36 BB (t1080), between grubby, CO and SB.


Yes, a 50+5 limit SnG. The SnG tourney window updates fast enough that I double-clicked and joined the wrong one. This happens perhaps once every month, so it's no big deal. I don't usually notice the difference until I try to raise big and have no raise bar, or I see all 10 players still hanging around at Level 3.

I don't know how to play limit SnGs. I rely on playing tight early, letting people bust out, then concentrating on the remaining seven or eight players. With limit (like ring), you can't make people pay for their draws.

Suffice to say, I did not cash in this SnG.

CO had 10-10 and really had no business being in the hand past the flop with a 3bet to him. Watch how he reverts to being a calling station and call-call-calls all the way down. Easy, easy fold. I would also not have capped preflop with 10-10.

If you want to show off your mad skills, you can also guess what SB held. You won't get anything extra, except glory and maybe a cookie.

For $30 and the win of HoW #23, what did grubby have? (Your thought process explained is also appreciated!)